‘Ordo ab chao’ – ORDER OUT OF CHAOS

Good morning Fellow Gunners

‘The moral is to the physical as three is to one’ Napoleon.

One of the defining characteristics of war, whether modern or ancient, is no doubt chaos.
From the moment that battle is joined, plans go awry and start to unravel, units fragment,
soldiers die, or get wounded, logistics impeded and uncertainty sets in. Tactics is the countervailing
antidote to chaos. Derived from the Greek taktos, meaning ‘ordered’ or ‘arranged’.
So, by extension, ‘tactics’ implies the deliberate control of military formation, movement and
fire, and the inevitable attempt to outclass and outwit a more moribund adversary. This is, to,
use the jargon, – ‘The Fog of War’. Or in ‘troepie’ jargon, ‘the s@#t hits the fan.’
Tactics encapsulates every form of war–making. The writer would like to frame this article
around the following elements: Firepower, Mobility, Shock and Awe, Defence,
Time/Distance factors, and Uncertainty.

This selection is by no means exhaustive. The reader should also be aware of the relative
fluidity of the importance of the elements. The battle will dictate which element needs to take
precedent over others. This is the big picture that Commanders need to be aware of. Not all
Commanders are blessed with this very necessary skill.
If one looks at Firepower, it simply means the necessary weapons used to inflict maximum
casualty upon the enemy. The 5m sarissa spear carried by Alexander the Great’s army in
the third century B.C., when presented by units of 256 men and 16 deep (syntagma), helped
his forces carve out a Macedonian Empire from Greece to the Indus. Fast forward to the
Gulf War (1990-91), where a radically different technology wreaked havoc in that theatre of
war. Allied airpower killed more than 300,000 Iraqi soldiers and destroyed over 5,000 military
vehicles with no tactically significant resistance – such was the level of fire supremacy.
Vladimir Putin made a colossal miscalculation when ordering his troops to invade Ukraine on
Thursday, 24 February 2022. By all accounts, according to the estimates of Russian military
planners, full annexation would be achieved by August 2022. At the time of writing, the
Russo-Ukraine War still rages on, with no meaningful end in sight. In essence Putin had
failed to grasp how warfare had evolved since the days of Blitzkrieg, and how the scales of
advantage had shifted decisively from offence to defence. Volodymyr Zelensky was
someone more, and something more, than merely a comedian and an actor traipsing around
in a casual T-shirt. Putin might be forgiven for expressing some hubris in this regard. And
the people rallied around Zelensky. As Napoleon said, ‘the moral is to the physical as three
is to one’.

What is significant about the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is how warfare has been characterised
by Drone deployment, euphemistically referred to as, ‘The Game of Drones’. Now firepower
is directed and controlled remotely. Concepts such as A.I., deep learning, natural language
processing, computer vision, and big data analytics (to name a few), are now the order of the
day. Precision long-range bombing is here, and here to stay.

The Ukrainians knew very well that they could not outclass Moscow in terms of sheer
numbers, be they troops or materiel. But the Ukrainian forces very skilfully forced the
Russians to travel along roads (Russian vehicles were generally not suited to all-terrain
travel). Local Ukrainians, equipped with mobile phones, kept Ukrainian Command Centres
informed of Russian movements. It helps to have local support. The ensuing traffic
congestion provided an ideal target feast for the Ukrainians. In the words of General Valeriry
Zaluzhni, the Ukrainian C-in-C, ‘But what killed them was our artillery. That was what broke
their units’. The Ukrainians devasted the Russian supply lines, their combat forces and
equipment, with relentless, large-scale application of short- and long-range precision
firepower. And there to assist was the humble drone. The drone will no doubt be an ongoing
feature of any conflict, be it in the present, or the future.

It is also worth noting that at the time of writing that the I.D.F. has introduced the Iron Beam
High Energy Laser Weapon System into its arsenal. The advent of concentrated light as a
source of firepower is here. Who knows what will be next?
The historian Niall Ferguson commented, ‘A Twentieth-Century invasion, has been checked
by a Twenty-First-Century defence.’
One would have thought that the Russians would have learnt something from their adventure
into Afghanistan.
It needs to be said that Firepower rarely wins battles without Mobility. Mobility dictates the
speed, tempo and tactical positioning of forces.

The significance of mobility has long been known to Commanders, and dates to at least 1400
B.C. where cavalry was in the ascendency. The Battle of Carrhae in 53 B.C.; Hohenfreidberg
in 1745; and Hitler’s Blitzkrieg in 1939, are a few examples of the efficiency of mobility.
The writer would like to home in on mobility from a South African perspective, and its
uniqueness given our geographical position on the African continent. There’s a vastness
north of us, if one takes the distance from the Atlantic Ocean (Angola) in the west, to the
Indian Ocean (Mozambique) on the east coast. A rough distance of around 2750 kilometres.
Given the external and existential threat to South Africa, that vastness had to be protected
and defended from as far back as 1957 to 1988. And a large part, is savannah grassland,
with mobility key to covering that terrain in as short a time as possible. Rommel had similar
issues in North Africa. However North Africa is not Europe where the topography is vastly
different; where Time-Distance factors have different calibration dynamics. The result was
that, due to the terrain, Rommel outdistanced his supply lines. This ultimately worked against
him, most notably at El Alamein. Guns without ammunition are useless!

Keep in mind, that by-and-large the S.A.D.F. had superb logistical networks. Keep in mind
also the S.A.D.F. was the strongest fighting force in Africa for most of the time from 1957 to
1988.
The writer is of the opinion that we had some of the ‘best boots on the ground’; in the world
at that time.

Battles, space together with terrain conditions and the requirements for manoeuvre and
support, can take a heavy toll on time, which is one of the scarcest commodities in warfare.
Add to that the performance of available transport and the disposition of fighting forces,
determine efficiencies when moving from one sphere of influence on the battlefield to the
next.

Distance and levels of mobility ultimately determine how much time will be consumed before
critical missions can be re-engaged. Greater distances obviously consume more time, more
resources, limit opportunities, and expose own forces to more risk. Time and distance allow
the enemy more time to reposition himself. The Commander knows that that vacuum needs
to be taken care of as soon as possible. This because during battle, the general rule is that
the greater the distance, the higher the tendency to travel in groups or convoys, thereby
increasing the probability of attack by enemy forces. There is the possibility of a trade-off
that the Commander faces – bring in additional protective forces, and thereby dilute
resources, which could be better deployed elsewhere.

There is no formula for avoiding this conundrum. The elasticity of time and distance factors
on the battlefield will forever be an issue facing any field Commander. This was no more
poignant than in Angola where S.A.D.F. Commanders were always in a Sisyphean struggle
of having to be at the right place, at the right time and moment, and just in time, most of the
time. And weighing on the Commander’s mind, is the overwhelming burden of Uncertainty.

The Commander, of necessity, and out of responsibility, needs to take ownership of any
uncertainty that lays before him. This is what he was trained to do. Perhaps the words of
Rudyard Kipling, say it best:
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And – which is more – you’ll be a Man, my son!


From – ‘IF’ (Brother square toes)

Follow this advice from Rudyard Kipling, and any Commander stands a good chance of
maintaining ‘Order out of Chaos’.

Should the Commander manage to achieve what is mentioned above, he has every
opportunity to overwhelm his adversary with Shock and Awe. Shock is the surprise and
violence of an attack. It is the tactical element intended to throw the enemy into disarray.
Exploiting the enemy’s weak points and punching through, and then fanning out in the
enemy’s rear, and cutting off his supply and communication lines.

No discussion on warfare would be complete without looking at Defence Tactics. Defence
tactics are some of the most changeless of military principles – the soldier’s very survival
depends on it. Each passing military epoch has shaped the nature of defensive warfare eg.
Castles, earthen ramparts, trenches, bunkers, to name a few. Its worth mentioning that today,
fighting positions depend on camouflage, concealment, and nimbleness for their defence.
Being static presents a good chance of destruction.

The above is an endeavour to outline the elements of warfare. A lot more can and could have
been written on the topic – it is a vast subject. Constantly evolving with the passage of time,
and the advance of technology.
However, only the essence is being sought here.

In closing, the writer would like to focus on the South Africa paradigm. This from Field Marshal
Lord Horatio Kitchener (in a despatch during The Anglo-Boer War 1899 – 1902):
‘The Boers observe the movements of a column from a long way off, only showing very few
men. Then, having chosen some advantage, charge in with great boldness; and the result
is a serious casualty list.’


The concept of Mobility has been, in part, the raison d’ etre of the S.A.D.F. from its dawn. If
asked, I’m sure any S.A. Commander would concur with this characteristic.
Mobility brings with it the leverage of a force multiplier – more damage inflicted with fewer
forces, fewer resources.

‘Mobilitate Vincere’
(Victory lies in mobility.)
Motto: 61 Mechanized Brigade.

Gunner Greetings

Collin Hyman
15 January 2025

Bibliography:
1) The Encyclopedia of Combat Techniques – Chris McNab & Will Fowler.
2) Conflict – General David Petraeus & Prof. Andrew Roberts.
3) Eye of the Firestorm – General Roland de Vries.
4) Cuito Cuanavale – Fred Bridgland.